Brazil, Russia, India and China—the so-called BRIC countries—will account for nearly one-third of global auto sales growth through 2014 and about 30% of the 87 million-vehicle global auto market, according to a study by the Boston Consulting Group.
BCG says a rising middle class and an increase in low-priced vehicles will help boost combined sales in those countries to as much as 27 million vehicles by then. Demand in the mature markets of Europe, Japan and the U.S. will increase by about 2% per year through 2014 vs. an average 6% annual growth rate in the BRIC nations.
The BCG study predicts China’s annual sales growth will cool to 5% from last year’s torrid 42% pace. Demand in Brazil, the most stable and mature of the BRIC markets, is expected to increase at an annual rate of 3%, while sales in India spurt 9% per year. BCG predicts that volume in Russia, which plunged by half last year, will stabilize this year and grow 15% annually over the next four years.
Automakers must selectively increase manufacturing capacity and sourcing, boost R&D and expand dealer networks in the BRIC countries, the study says. Although many suppliers and OEMs have set up operations in the four countries, most are not fully capitalizing on the opportunities because their operations are not deeply localized, according to BCG.
The study points out that R&D is centralized at many companies, giving most local R&D centers—except for those in Brazil—limited autonomy. Russia has the least localized R&D of the BRIC countries.
Automakers pay a 5%-15% premium to manufacture in the BRIC countries because of poor economies of scale and higher costs to ensure quality, according to the report. It says the exception is Brazil, whose large established operations operate at costs even lower than those in Europe, Japan and the U.S.
Carmakers source few parts in Russia for local or export production, in part because fewer than 5% of Russian suppliers meet international standards, the study says. China’s huge production volumes do permit economies of scale.
Foreign automakers buy no more than 5% of vehicle components for worldwide production from Chinese suppliers. The report says they rely on China-based foreign suppliers for 56% of the parts used in locally built vehicles.
BCG says companies have tried to standardize their products and processes across the four developing countries to reduce costs. But the firm insists there is no one-size-fits-all BRIC vehicle because consumer tastes vary by region: Russia favors western-style sedans and SUVs, while India will rely on tiny, ultra-low-cost cars. Brazil prefers hatchbacks and sporty pickup trucks. China wants well-equipped large cars and trucks.