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January 25, 2010

GM Aims to Sell 2 Million Vehicles in China in 2010

General Motors Co. says it expects to sell two million passenger and commercial vehicles in China this year, more than two years earlier than it expected to hit that target. The company’s sales in China soared 67% to 1.83 million units in 2009, boosted by Chinese government incentives.

GM is adding more than 10 new models in China in 2010 and expects the overall market there to grow to 14 million-15 million units from 13.64 million last year.

Kevin Wale, president of GM China, tells reporters the company will need to build a new assembly plant in the “near future” to keep up with demand but won’t do so this year. He also confirms that GM is continuing talks with SAIC Motor Co. and Liuzhou Wuling Automobile Co. about increasing its stake to 44% from 34% in their three-way venture. SAIC currently owns 50.1% of the company, and Wuling owns 15.9%.


Indicators Signal Early Stages of Economic Recovery

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators, which increased a revised 1% from October to November, posted a broad-based gain of 1.1% in December, according to the New York City-based Conference Board. It was the index’s ninth consecutive month-over-month increase.

The index, which is considered a predictor of economic activity in the next six to nine months, now stands at 106.4. Eight of the index’s 10 indicators increased last month. The other two—the average work week and new orders for consumer goods—were unchanged from November. The research group says the index’s latest gains suggest that the current slow economic expansion could accelerate this spring.

The board’s gauge of present conditions increased 0.1% last month, its fifth increase in six months. The measure of lagging indicators fell 0.2%.


Johnson Controls Swings to a Record Profit

Johnson Controls Inc. posted a record $350 million profit in the fiscal first quarter ended Dec. 31, reversing a $608 million loss a year earlier, thanks to cost reductions and higher sales.

Revenue increased 15% to $8.4 billion, including a $1 billion jump in automotive revenue to $4.1 billion as production volumes increased in Europe and North America. JCI’s sales in China, where it controls 45% of the auto seating market, more than doubled. The company also acquired at least $200 million of business from distressed parts makers last year.

Revenue from JCI’s car battery unit grew 15% to $1.3 billion. But sales by the company’s building heating and cooling business slipped 2% to $3 billion as demand eroded in Europe and Latin America.

All three units recorded profits. The company reduced its debt by $552 million and generated free cash flow of $631 million.

JCI hiked its 2010 sales forecast by $2 billion to $33 billion and its earnings-per-share outlook by 30 cents to as much as $1.75. The company also boosted its projection for 2010 North American auto production to 10.3 million units from 9.8 million.


Emerging Markets Will Account for One-Third of Global Sales

Brazil, Russia, India and China—the so-called BRIC countries—will account for nearly one-third of global auto sales growth through 2014 and about 30% of the 87 million-vehicle global auto market, according to a study by the Boston Consulting Group.

BCG says a rising middle class and an increase in low-priced vehicles will help boost combined sales in those countries to as much as 27 million vehicles by then. Demand in the mature markets of Europe, Japan and the U.S. will increase by about 2% per year through 2014 vs. an average 6% annual growth rate in the BRIC nations.

The BCG study predicts China’s annual sales growth will cool to 5% from last year’s torrid 42% pace. Demand in Brazil, the most stable and mature of the BRIC markets, is expected to increase at an annual rate of 3%, while sales in India spurt 9% per year. BCG predicts that volume in Russia, which plunged by half last year, will stabilize this year and grow 15% annually over the next four years.

Automakers must selectively increase manufacturing capacity and sourcing, boost R&D and expand dealer networks in the BRIC countries, the study says. Although many suppliers and OEMs have set up operations in the four countries, most are not fully capitalizing on the opportunities because their operations are not deeply localized, according to BCG.

The study points out that R&D is centralized at many companies, giving most local R&D centers—except for those in Brazil—limited autonomy. Russia has the least localized R&D of the BRIC countries.

Automakers pay a 5%-15% premium to manufacture in the BRIC countries because of poor economies of scale and higher costs to ensure quality, according to the report. It says the exception is Brazil, whose large established operations operate at costs even lower than those in Europe, Japan and the U.S.

Carmakers source few parts in Russia for local or export production, in part because fewer than 5% of Russian suppliers meet international standards, the study says. China’s huge production volumes do permit economies of scale.

Foreign automakers buy no more than 5% of vehicle components for worldwide production from Chinese suppliers. The report says they rely on China-based foreign suppliers for 56% of the parts used in locally built vehicles.

BCG says companies have tried to standardize their products and processes across the four developing countries to reduce costs. But the firm insists there is no one-size-fits-all BRIC vehicle because consumer tastes vary by region: Russia favors western-style sedans and SUVs, while India will rely on tiny, ultra-low-cost cars. Brazil prefers hatchbacks and sporty pickup trucks. China wants well-equipped large cars and trucks.


Harley-Davidson Posts First Quarterly Loss in 16 Years

Harley-Davidson Inc. swung to a $219 million loss in the final three months of 2009—its first quarterly loss since 1993—from a $78 million profit a year earlier.

The Milwaukee-based motorcycle maker attributes the loss to $167 million in restructuring costs and to tight credit and the weak economy, which discouraged demand for premium bikes. Harley-Davidson’s year-over-year profits have declined for nine consecutive quarters.

Sales dropped 40% to $765 million in the fourth quarter as motorcycle shipments plunged 53% to 35,900 units. The company attributes its loss of nearly five points of share in the heavyweight motorcycle market during the period to heavy discounting by competitors. It says it won’t follow suit because it doesn’t want to weaken its brand image. The financial services unit narrowed its loss to $7 million from $25 million a year earlier.

For the full year, the company lost $55 million compared with a $655 million profit in 2008. Revenue fell 23% to $4.3 billion. Shipments slid 27% to 223,000 units. The company expects shipments to decline this year to 201,000-212,000 motorcycles.

Restructuring costs totaled $224 million in 2009, as Harley-Davidson launched a four-year cost-cutting program to save as much as $260 million per year. The program includes entering the fast-growing India market, discontinuing the Buell brand and selling its MV Agusta unit. The company says it is “well along” in selling MV Agusta after receiving more interest than it expected.

Harley-Davidson also negotiated labor concessions at its main plant in York, Pa., and is closing one of two factories there. The company expects to realize as much as $155 million of the overall restructuring savings this year.


UAW Protests as Ford Restores Salaried Benefits

The United Auto Workers union is asking its members at Ford Motor Co., who agreed in March to give up cost-of-living pay increases and annual bonuses, to file “policy grievances” against the company for restoring raises, 401(k) matching contributions and tuition assistance for salaried workers.

The UAW says it plans to gather signatures to file a grievance at each unionized facility and also has complained directly to Ford management. Last month the company resumed the white-collar benefits—which had been suspended in 2008 and 2009—after posting a $997 million profit in the third quarter.

Union leaders say the decision violates its letters of understanding with Ford, as well as the spirit of equality of sacrifice. UAW members at Ford rejected a second round of concessions in November.


Chrysler Delays Closing of Ohio Stamping Plant

Union leaders at Chrysler Group LLC’s stamping plant in Twinsburg, Ohio, say the company has notified workers that it plans to keep the factory open until June 26, three months beyond its scheduled closing date.

The plant closing is part of the company’s bankruptcy reorganization. A jump in steel prices delayed Chrysler’s plans to build a stockpile of parts before the plant closed in late March, the union says.

Union officials say more than half of the plant’s 1,000 workers have already taken buyouts or transferred to other Chrysler plants. The company aims to sell the Twinsburg property.


NHTSA Studies Airbag Problems in Ford Trucks

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has upgraded its investigation of complaints about the inadvertent deployment of airbags on some Ford F-150 fullsize pickup trucks to an engineering analysis. Such an upgrade is often the precursor to a recall.

The review involves as many as 1.6 million trucks from the 2004-2006 model years. Ford says a sharp metal edge on a mounting plate can eventually wear through a jumper wire, causing a short circuit that triggers the airbag. NHTSA said it has had 323 complaints, including reports of 66 injuries and one crash or fire. Ford changed the mounting plate design in 2006.


Fiat Names Wester as Alfa Romeo CEO

Fiat SpA has appointed Harald Wester, its chief technical officer and CEO of the Abarth and Maserati brands, to the additional job of CEO of its struggling Alfa Romeo brand.

Wester succeeds Sergio Cravero, who now becomes head of product planning. By putting the three marques under a single manager, the company hopes to take advantage of synergies among the sporty brands.

Fiat CEO Sergio Marchionne has said Alfa Romeo must become profitable or face extinction. Earlier this month he said the unit is not for sale but must show it has “a right to exist as a separate brand” before it re-enters the U.S. market. An Alfa Romeo turnaround plan is expected as part of the new Fiat business plan due in the next few months.

As CTO, Wester is in charge of sharing platforms and technology between Fiat and alliance partner Chrysler Group LLC. He worked at Volkswagen, Audi, Magna Steyr and Ferarri before joining Fiat as CTO in 2004.