Print this issue

January 7, 2010

Oil Prices Surpass $83 Per Barrel

Crude oil futures increased $1.41 per barrel yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange to close at a 15-month high of $83.18 in the 10th consecutive session of rising prices. That’s the longest string of gains in more than 13 years.

Analysts say the rally is fueled by expectations of economic growth that would hike energy consumption. They also cite the weaker dollar and bitter winter weather that is boosting demand for heating oil.

The U.S. price of gasoline is creeping up nationwide and now averages $2.69 per gallon, up 6 cents in the past week and $1 higher than a year ago, according to the AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report.


GM Expects Profit This Year

CEO Ed Whitacre surprised investors yesterday by predicting that General Motors Co., which emerged from bankruptcy in July, will make money this year.

GM’s last annual profit was in 2004, and the company has offered little financial guidance since 2005.

Whitacre told reporters that GM isn’t under pressure to go public and won’t launch an initial public offering before late 2010. Big investors, including the U.S. and Canadian governments (72.5%) and a union-run retiree trust (17.5%) are eager to sell their equity after an IPO. Whitacre says it isn’t necessary for GM to be in the black before it goes public but notes, “It would be helpful.”

Whitacre says GM is focused on generating revenue, now that it has slashed its cost structure in Chapter 11. “We have to sell more stuff,” he declares. Demand for the company’s domestic brands plunged 30% last year to a 50-year low of 2.1 million vehicles.

A new business plan devised by management last month calls for GM to boost U.S. market share this year, Whitacre says, without specifying the goal. The company lost more than two points of share to about 20% last year. Analysts expect further share losses as GM sells or closes the Hummer, Pontiac, Saab and Saturn brands this year.

But Whitacre points to hopeful signs in the company’s December sales report, such as a 13% year-over-year increase in retail sales of the brands GM is keeping: Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet and GMC.

Whitacre also says GM must improve its government relations to ease the backlash in Washington, D.C., sparked by the company’s $50 billion federal bailout. GM hired two former AT&T lobbyists last month.

Whitacre expects GM will be forced to reinstate at least 100 terminated dealers as the result of the independent reviews Congress has ordered. The company scrapped contracts with more than 1,300 U.S. dealers last year during restructuring and had 5,700 retailers at year-end.


Hybrids Gain Share in U.S.

Automakers sold 290,400 hybrid vehicles in the U.S. last year, down 8% from 2008, according to Bloomberg News.

But because the U.S. market shrank 21% last year, hybrids boosted their share to 2.8% in 2009 from 2.4% the year before. Bloomberg notes that hybrids gained despite the recession and a 28% drop in gasoline prices last year. Higher gasoline prices typically spur sales of fuel-efficient hybrids.

Hybrid sales jumped 43% in December, outpacing the overall market, as demand for Toyota Motor Corp.’s Prius hybrid sedan surged 50%. Prius sales slid 12% last year but accounted for half of all hybrid sales in the U.S.

Analysts tell Bloomberg that hybrid volume could grow this year as overall auto demand increases and companies introduce 15 new or revamped hybrids. Some say demand could easily top 2007’s record of 355,800 hybrid sales.


GM: Saab Sales Unlikely

General Motors Co. is “not confident” it will be able to find a qualified last-minute buyer for its Saab Automobile unit, says CEO Ed Whitacre.

According to Saab, GM has set a deadline of this evening for reviewing bids, although the U.S. company has not confirmed that.

Whitacre tells reporters the brand is in “wind-down mode” because prospective bidders don’t have the financing to close a deal. “It’s real easy,” he says. “Show up with the money and you can have it.” He dismisses criticism GM is giving up on Saab too easily, insisting the company has done everything possible to facilitate a sale.

Automotive News reports that Dutch sports car maker Spyker Cars NV is the only buyer still in the running. Citing an unidentified source, the newspaper says GM broke off talks with Spyker last month because it objected to an unidentified Russian partner who was providing financing. Spyker has been scrambling since then to find another financing source, according to AN.

Spyker’s earlier bid included backing from Russian bank RMC Convers Group. Bloomberg News has reported that GM is uneasy about the participation of Vladimir and Alexander Antonov, who own 30% of Spyker and control Convers.

Separately, Whitacre says that GM’s planned sale of its Hummer SUV brand to China’s Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial Machinery Co., which was announced last June, is “proceeding as it should.”


Chrysler’s Global Sales Drop by One-Third

Chrysler Group LLC says it sold 1.32 million light vehicles worldwide last year, down 34% from 2008, amid the global recession.

The company sold 33,900 vehicles in the Asia-Pacific region-more than half of them in China. Chrysler also sold 49,000 vehicles in central and western Europe, 34,500 in Latin America and 22,900 in Africa, the Middle East, eastern Europe and Russia. Chrysler did not provide year-over-year comparisons for regional sales.

Volume in the U.S., Chrysler’s main market, plummeted 36% to a 47-year low of 931,400 units as the company’s bankruptcy chilled demand. Canada sales fell by one-quarter to 163,200 units.

Chrysler has made international expansion a priority in recent years, but it has made little headway. The company hopes its alliance with Fiat SpA, its 20% owner, will give it greater access to some overseas markets.


Auto Sales Slide 11% in Canada

Automakers sold 1.46 million light vehicles in Canada last year, down from 1.64 million in 2008, according to Richmond Hill, Ont.-based consulting firm DesRosiers Automotive Reports.

DesRosiers says demand last year was the lowest since 1998, as four of the five largest automakers posted large year-over-year sales declines: General Motors (-29%), Chrysler (-27%), Honda (-18%) and Toyota (-9%). The exception was Ford, whose sales increased 7%.

South Korea’s Hyundai and Kia posted gains of 28% and 23%, respectively. A 16% sales increase took Subaru to its all-time high. European carmakers posted solid gains, resulting in record years for Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz.

GM and Chrysler surrendered almost 7 points of market share from 2008 to 2009, while Ford picked up 2.5 points. GM remains Canada’s top-selling automaker with 17.2% of the market, but Ford (15.4%) moved up to second place from fourth. Toyota (14.1%) and Chrysler (11.1%)each fell one spot to third and fourth place, respectively.

Light trucks gained in popularity vs. passenger cars-the opposite of the U.S. trend. Trucks accounted for nearly 49% of all vehicles sold in Canada last year, up 3.5 points from 2008.


Ford Stock Riding High

Shares of Ford Motor Co., which climbed 12% in December, advanced 41 cents yesterday to close at $11.37 in heavy trading, marking a 14% jump in the first three trading sessions of 2010.

Yesterday’s closing price was the highest since March 2005 but was still barely half the stock’s price 10 years ago.

Analysts say investors, who are already bullish about the company’s turnaround, were cheered by news this week that the company’s U.S. sales surged 33% in December (or 24% on a daily sales basis). In 2009 Ford’s domestic brands posted their first annual gain in U.S. market share since 1995: a 1.1-point increase to 15.5%.


Chrysler Hires New Agency for Dodge

Chrysler Group LLC says it has chosen the Portland, Ore.-based Wieden + Kennedy agency to handle advertising for its Dodge car brand.

The move ends a six-month review that resulted in the reassignment of all of Chrysler’s advertising work, which was previously handled by Omnicom Group agencies. Omnicom’s BBDO Worldwide, which lost all of Chrysler’s brand accounts in November, said it would close its Detroit-area offices and eliminate as many as 485 jobs when its Chrysler contract expires on Jan. 26.

Dallas-based Richards Group will handle the Ram truck brand, Southfield, Mich.-based GlobalHue will represent Jeep and Publicis Groupe’s Minneapolis-based Fallon Worldwide will promote the Chrysler brand. Last month Chrysler named Universal McCann to take over all media planning and buying in North America, replacing Omnicom’s PHD agency.

Olivier Francois, the Fiat SpA manager who added Chrysler marketing to his duties in October, was a key player in choosing the new agencies. He says assigning each brand to a different agency will help sharpen brand identities.