Plug-in vehicles probably won’t begin to significantly reduce U.S. oil consumption and greenhouse gas emissions until at least 2030 because the cost of lithium-ion batteries will limit vehicle sales, according to a new report from the National Research Council.
The analysis, which was prepared for the Dept. of Energy, estimates that as plug-in vehicles arrive next year, they could cost $18,000 more to produce than gasoline-powered cars. The NRC expects the cost of such batteries to decline by only half over the next 20 years-a much less optimistic view than those of makers of plug-in vehicles.
The study says subsidies of tens to hundreds of billions of dollars will be needed over the next several decades to promote sales of plug-in vehicles.